Oilers Slightly Favored Over Panthers In Stanley Cup Final Rematch

LAS VEGAS (AP) - The Final is so near to being a tossup, Florida would likely be preferred if the Panthers had home-ice benefit.


But that edge belongs to Edmonton, which mostly describes why the Oilers are small favorites to win the series, which begins Wednesday.


"However you want to take a look at this pie, you might make an argument that either group might be favored," Caesars Sportsbook head of hockey Karry Shreeve said. "Home ice is certainly playing a part. You're just playing the percentages. The team that wins Game 1 of the Stanley Cup, they go on to win roughly 75% of the time."


BetMGM Sportsbook notes the Oilers as -130 favorites to win Game 1 and take that crucial 1-0 series lead. The sportsbook makes Edmonton as the -125 favorite to become the first Canadian group because Montreal in 1993 to raise the Stanley Cup.


Defending champ Florida, which beat Edmonton in seven video games last year, is the +105 underdog.


BetMGM trading supervisor Christian Cipollini said about 55% of the money has been available in on the Oilers.


Edmonton Oilers' Connor McDavid (97) speaks to media during a news conference, Tuesday, June 3, 2025, in Edmonton, Alberta, ahead of Game 1 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup last series versus the Florida Panthers. (Jason Franson/The Canadian Press through AP)


"I would anticipate that to probably continue," Cipollini said. "I think we'll most likely take a bit more Oilers money simply since of Connor McDavid, however this is a rematch. Florida won in 2015, so I believe we will wind up getting an even projection."


Hockey handicapper Alex B. Smith, who co-hosts The Ice Guys podcast, does not purchase the Oilers must be preferred.


"You do not see rematches too often in the Cup Final," Smith stated. "When you do, you always ask yourself the obvious concern: Are these 2 groups better or even worse than they were in 2015? I 'd state Florida is a better variation of themselves from in 2015. Edmonton (is) a little even worse than in 2015, specifically when you take a look at no Zach Hyman offered for this series. Connor Brown is returning for Game 1, however how healthy is he going to be?


"I provide the edges to Florida based off of they have actually been playing much better, sound defense. I think they're a tighter group than they were in 2015."


Edmonton's captain became the 2nd skater and 6th gamer to be awarded the Conn Smythe Trophy as the playoffs MVP last season while using the losing team.


McDavid leads this postseason in scoring with 26 points, one ahead of teammate Leon Draisaitl, and is the +100 preferred at BetMGM to win the Conn Smythe, offering him a chance to make more history even if the Panthers win.


"Are they really going to provide McDavid back-to-back Conn Smythes in losing efforts?" Cipollini asked. "He is the favorite since of the points scored and there's already a precedent that they might give it to him here, but that's something to enjoy as the games get going. If there is a Florida player that isn't truly sticking out ... there is a real world where it could be him once again in a losing effort."


Oilers goalie Stuart Skinner has actually long been considered as a weak point on the lineup, a track record that seemed sealed when he was benched 2 games into the playoffs.


But Skinner is a major reason Edmonton is still playing. He has enabled one or absolutely no goals in five of his past 7 starts, 3 of them nothings.


Another fantastic run in the web could put Skinner, noted +3500 at BetMGM, in position to win the Conn Smythe.


"I would not have actually told you this was sustainable before," Smith stated of Skinner's hot play. "Now, with one series left, it definitely is sustainable."


Florida is making its 3rd successive appearance in the Stanley Cup Final, another deep run in which fatigue might finally reach the Panthers. Or they might simply be on a heating unit having won 10 of their previous 11 playoff series.


Shreeve stated the metrics indicate a Panthers championship and though either result would be great with Caesars, a Florida victory would be better.


"I put on ´ t hate where we ´ re at with this one," Shreeve said. "In 2015 was a bit harder since more people liked Florida, however individuals are all about Edmonton this postseason, which I like."


Because this series apparently could go in either case and Oklahoma City is greatly preferred over Indiana in the NBA Finals, that could increase betting interest in the Stanley Cup Final.


"I believe it helps the NBA is getting the less sexier match," Shreeve stated. "The more bettable series is going to be Edmonton-Florida. If things stay tight, it has a possibility to go six or seven video games, which would assist."


AP NHL playoffs: https://apnews.com/hub/stanley-cup and https://apnews.com/hub/nhl


Edmonton Oilers' Leon Draisaitl (29) and Connor McDavid (97) participate in practice, Tuesday, June 3, 2025, in Edmonton, Alberta, ahead of Game 1 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup last series versus the Florida Panthers. (Jason Franson/The Canadian Press through AP)


FILE - Florida Panthers forward Aleksander Barkov hoists the Stanley Cup after defeating the Edmonton Oilers in Game 7 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup Final, Monday, June 24, 2024, in Sunrise, Fla. (Nathan Denette/The Canadian Press by means of AP, File)